Basic Strategy Parlay while keeping score
  • Howdy... new to the page.

    After reading a few dozen posts on parlay, progressions, methods, systems... et al, Ummmm, it seems that a parlay based on player advantage is OK?

    Perhaps we can qualify the increase by a rule that says press when you win at a certain score, but always decrease when the score drops.

    Lets keep score of the player/house advantage... +1 and -1 seems simple enuff. +1 for each 5 seen, and -1 for each Ace seen.

    But the house has a small advantage at the beginning of the game, so lets start at a score of -2. and bet 1 chip.

    We will use Basic Strategy at all times.

    When the score is ZERO we double up to 2 chips when we win a hand at a score of ZERO.... not before!... not if we lose or tie.

    When the score is +1, and we win a hand, we will double up again to 4 chips.
    BUT if our last bet was 1 chip, we go to 2, and if we win with 2 chips and the score is still +1 or more, we double up to 4 chips.

    When the score is +2 and we win a hand, we parlay 1 last time to 8 chips.
    This is the most we bet not counting the double-downs and splits.
    Just like above, if we are betting less than we can, we parlay up to the 'proper' wager when we win, and the score remains proper.

    Remember that as soon as the score drops, so does our bet. If we're betting 8 chips with a score of +2 and the score drops to +1, our next bet is 4 chips.
    If we're betting 4 chips at +2 and the score drops to +1, we still bet 4 chips, because 4 chips is the correct bet for a score of +1.

    When the shoe is done and the cards are shuffled, reset score to -2, and bet 1 chip. Start all over again.

    score=zero bet 2 after you win
    score=+1 bet 4 after you win
    score=+2 or more bet 8 after you win
    parlay up to the correct bet at the above scores after you win if you're betting less.

    OPTION: when the score goes up to +3, and we win, add 4 chips for a total of 12. Never ever bet more than this, even if the score goes higher.

  • This is certainly an improvement over flat betting or even progressions, in terms of EV. Counters would call this "heavy cover", since your bet is NOT moving in lock step with the count. You won't get the full advantage you would from counting, but you will get more than nothing.

    Also, just counting 5s is not as powerful as hi-lo, so your achievable advantage will be even less.

    Counting works because you bet more when you have the advantage and less when you don't. The optimal betting ramp seeks to maximize the growth of your bankroll, while keeping the risk of loosing it all to an acceptable level.
  • Nickols

    I noticed on your web page that you say if surrender is not offered to not play this. Is that right? Does this only work if surrender is offered?

  • n & B:

    1) is that based on a six deck shoe? if u assume a starting point of -2, i think u are using the system explained on but the running total will not reflect the same advantage for different games usong different numbers of decks...

    2) also you can improve that strategy by adding a true count type conversion when decks are removed from the shoe... for example a +1 right out of the shoe would not reflect as great an advantage as a +1 midway thru the shoe

    3) what is you suggested bankroll for using the A-5 as you describe? i would think 500 units would sustain you... do you think you could survive on less?

    4) does anyone know what the betting efficiency of the A-5 versus a hi-lo is? i understand that the hi-lo is better, but for many players, including me, its not worth the trouble to use hi-lo.... it takes the fun out of the game... but A-5 might be an easy middle ground.
  • ed.... Im counting Aces and 5's. As you correctly point out, the parlay scheme presented here is not efficient. A player has to advance immediately to the correct wager, rather than parlay up to it when a hand is won at a particular score.As written, there is a 0.1% gain over basic with the 800# gorilla caveat that one has to wager 8 units. It illustrates the faults in parlays. One does not bet correctly to the advantage.

    Yes I do own the ace-five site.

    tuffy.... that is true when the dealer HITS soft 17. A5 counting is simply not quite good enuff. Although with the wager progression presented, you can have a slight advantage IF late surr. is allowed, AND you can resplit Aces.

    For dealer STANDS on soft 17... you can still use the A5 method at a reduced advantage. I haven't determined the exact scores for H/S.

    drew.... it IS the Ace-Five method, with ONE IMPORTANT change, and thats the parlay rule in this post. It decimates the advantage from +0.2% to -0.25%. It illustrates what improper betting does to this running count method.

    Yes, its for 6 decks dealer stands soft 17 as written above.

    Since its a running count method, using true count methods are less efficient, and won't give the player a 0.1% advantage, let alone a 0.19% advantage as shown on the site. [This is due to the fact that the T.C. player has a disadvantage 80% of the time. As a running count, this is only 69.5% of the time] <-updated<br />
    The most efficient betting scheme for A5, 6 decks, Dealer stands soft 17, is 1,2,4,6,10. Thats a big spread. But one gets a 0.25% advantage. (The absolute maximum wager scheme is 1-2-4-8-12 with a 0.33% advantage. Remember that you must bet the proper wager for a given score after you win, and must reduce according to the score. A jump of say 2 to 12, or 1 to 8 may be noticed.)<- updated<br />
    Consider that a 1,2,3,4,5 hi-lo betting strategy in place of A5 nets the player 0.75% advantage. But you track more cards. Ever seen an index for hi-lo? Lotsa wierd plays, split 10's, DD 9v7, P99vAce, DDA9 v5,6... etc. Lotsa stuff that'll get ya caught. A5 is nearly invisible, and you do have an advantage, though you MUST bet at least 1-4. JMHO.

    The hi-lo method is a professional system, you could make a living at it. The A5 method is recreational. I point that out on site.

    N&B (updated 11-21) [updated 11-25]
  • I trated this inquiry separate Drew.

    "3) what is you suggested bankroll for using the A-5 as you describe? i would think 500 units would sustain you... do you think you could survive on less? "

    I recommend the following based on risk of ruin. For 8 hours of play, use 1 hr table stakes. With A5 as shown on site, you will wager $5125 in 100 hands on the average. (This figure indicates less than 2% Risk of Ruin) <- updated You may estimate your hands per hour based on that. 60 hands per hour would wager 60% of $5125 or $3075. So the answer depends upon how FAST the game is played.<br />
    Figure that for 8 hours play, at 60 hands per hour that you should bring $3100. That breaks down to about $400 per hour played. This is for a $25 minimum table betting GREEN, 6 decks DS17, LS. Simple answer is $400 per hr played betting green.

  • I have updated my original response several times. Just a reminder to check-up on the post...I've done some analysis to go along with my statements.


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