Leaving Early ? ? ?
  • Hello Folks,

    Over the last couple of days playing BJ, I've found myself jumping ship after I'm up a bit. It usually goes like this, I start up the game going down 5 - 7 units and then come back pretty well going up 10 - 15 units. At this point that little voice in my head tells me to bail out. I have been bailing for a decent win. I'm pretty sure in Walters book he says don't walk away from a winning table like that. Correct?

    I think the reason I'm doing this is because I've played a ton of BJ on my computer and it usually seems like once I'm up 10 - 15 units, that's about the peak. After that you just kind of stay even or go down.

    Any comments would be appreciated!

  • It always seems that I can't leave early enough, when I'm losing :)
    The last two times I've played in San Diego, I've felt like shheeesh, why do I try? But today The BJ Gods smiled on me once again, and I left because I just got tired of playing. Weird, huh? They say not to leave when winning, or maybe after 4 losses. I had 10X my buy in after two hrs using WT's progression today. I had a session two days ago, though, that alowed me to lose 200.00 in 20 minutes. GO FIGURE!
  • Yeah, it doesn't help that NBC is too lazy to answer emails either... :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
  • If you don't count, by all means walk away when you're winning. You'll be a much happier person and it will have zero impact on your expected winnings.

    If you DO count, you'll still be a happier person if you walk away when you're winning (although, since you know what the count is, you know the impact on your EV - usually trivial).

    A "hot" shoe can turn "cold" in an instant - there is really no way to predict it.
  • This may sound stupid because it's so simple,
    but I say that if you want to leave a winner,
    you have to leave while you're winning. :wink:
  • Leaving the table a winner is usually no big trick. During the majority of your sessions you will find yourself ahead at some point. It's staying ahead in the long run that most players cannot do -- and that has absolutely nothing to do with quitting when you're ahead.
    Here's something to think about: If you were flipping a coin for even money and your money management strategy was to quit every session as soon as you got ahead (even if only by one unit), you'd win 80% of your sessions. But over time you'd still end up winning 50% of your bets. And where does that put you?
  • Very well put sir!!

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