In defence of "quit points"...
  • In the billion hand comparison of flat, progressive, and "stop loss" betting systems contained in MODERN BLACKJACK, you concluded that there was no appreciable difference in financial outcome for the three different types of players - all lost money at about the same rate.
    In my study of 5,000 hands of play (102 consecutive shoes), I found a major improvement in financial outcome for all three types of players -- flat, progressive, and card counter -- when they quit playing a shoe after four consecutive losses (see Chapter Eleven TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY BLACKJACK). All three players went from losers to winners (The Positive Progressive bettor went from $30 loser to a $1,890 winner).
    The win/loss/push percentages for these 5,000 hands of play are pretty close to long-term expectation -- 45% win, 47% loss, 8% push -- just about what you would expect the numbers to be after a billion hands of play, and it seems to me that a small sample that mirrors long-term expectation would produce similar outcomes. What's wrong with my thinking here?
    One more point: Since, in your opinion, both flat and progressive bettors are negative expectation players, wouldn't a break from the tables (quitting play after 4 consecutive losses) kill some time and reduce their exposure to the casino's advantage? At worst, Quit Point play should reduce loss expectancy... right?
    Thanks in advance for your thoughts...
  • Note: This post is to QFIT...
  • Walter, this has been explained to you time and again. 5,000 hands is MEANINGLESS. I could play the worst startegy in the world and win or the best in the world and lose in 5,000 hands. It has nothing to do with the next 5,000 hands. That's why we simulate billions of hands. Simming five billion hands is like simming one million, 5,000 hand sessions and will give you an accurate picture of what will happen on average in 5,000 hands. No one should care what happened in the 5,000 hands you played once. It only matters to that 5,000 hands. And, I can create a weird strategy that will work for any particular 5,000 hands.

    And NO, quit points do not exist unless you NEVER play again. The cards don't know you changed tables. Quit points based on wins/losses have no effect as has been shown by both math and sims.
  • Hey guys, sorry for the newb question but I am working on a gaming site 30to10dds and I just wanted to know if that could go for any gambling or if it just for blackjack.
  • Improbable submit! This might help a lot of folks find out about this matter.

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