Need Progression Advice @ New Shoe
  • I have been playing double-deck at the Strip alternating between NY 2-1-2-3-4-5 when my bankroll is low and Walter's 2-3-4-5-5-5 when I am ahead. I adhere strictly to to the BS @ & am hopeless at counting cards :cry: So far I have been maintaining my betting progression even when its time for the dealer to shuffle (i.e. if I was betting 3 units & I won the last hand of that shoe, I bet 4 units on the first hand of the new shoe) and have noticed that I lost more often than I have won on first hands. Has anyone counted their win/loss ratio on first hands of new double-deck shoes before? Please input. Also, please advise if I should stick to carrying betting progression over to a new shoe or start every new shoe off with 1 or 2 units. Thanx in advance :roll:
  • laZyboy: I think it's important to end the progression at the end of a shoe, but I've seen no research that says you're more likely to lose the first hand out of the shoe... but it sure seems that way!! I like stopping the progression at the end of a shoe because it prevents you from always losing your max progression bet.
  • i dont like to keep my bet up on new shoes.

    i like to start a new progression with each new shoe.
    i dont think that i have ever seen any stats on what you are talking about.
    but my thinking is:
    1. if i just had a good shoe. im not going to push my luck, because the next shoe could be bad.
    2. if i just had a bad shoe, maybe this new shoe will be better, but im not making a huge bet to find out.

    plus i like to look at eash shoe individually. how many units did i win or lose in each shoe?

    i guess if i was way ahead, and was having an incredible winning streak. i might be inclined to let a progression roll into the next shoe. but i would have to be feeling super lucky and be waaaaaaayyyy ahead.
    i try to keep my aggressiveness pushed down. it usually costs me money.
  • Yeah, that's the thing with progressions too sometimes... sometimes you're at the max level or keep getting 20 and BJ it's like DAMNIT! If only I had MUCH MORE MONEY out!!! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

    But hey, if we knew, we'd all have the casinos BUSTED so.......... :?
  • Actually BuG the opposite happened to me yesterday in Vegas. I was experimenting with Walter's 2-3-4-5-5-5... progression & I did not win any of my fifth progression step which is the 5 units after the first 5 unit win 2-3-4-5-(->5<-) during my entire 10 hour session playing perfect BS :cry: <br />
    So instead of wishing I had more money out, I was going like DAMNIT! I shoulda pulled back after the first 5 unit win since my max streak throughout the whole session was just 4 in a row.

    I eventually reverted to Dahl's 2-2-3-3-4-4... as I was hitting lotsa LWLLWLLLWL... non-streak wins and finally hit the motherlode when I was betting 4 units & got a split hand of four 2's w/ 2 of them turning out to be double downs and the dealer BUSTED!!! That single hand made up for an entire night of ups and downs and I guess at that point I did go like DAMNIT! If only... :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
  • LayZboy: How long did you stay with my progression before switching to Dahl's? If I read your post correctly, it looks like you played about 800 hands (80 hands per hour average for 10 hours) then swithed to Dahl to win your duces split hand, on which you won 24 units. If this put you ahead for the session, looks like my progression was keeping you close to even for a pretty long period!
    You're right... "woulda coulda shoulda" thoughts always plague players who switch betting systems. Short term results vary so much that one system can be very superior to another depending on the win/loss patterns. I try not to look too far in the past, and stay with what's been working for me for an extended period of time.
  • Walter: Yeah, I gotta admit I am pretty comfortable with your method during my entire 8-hr session even though this is just the second time I have been using it (1st time was just a 2 hour session a few weeks back but I guess it doesn't count as I deviated to 2-1-2-3-4-5 on a few choppy stretches instead of employing the four-loss stop point)

    I used your method for the entire 8-hr session this time, bought in for $2000, changed tables exactly 9 times, played BS to the book, highest streak was 4 wins, minimum bet was $50, highest win was $575 (shoulda quit when it went down to $500 but wanted to make up for higher losses from previous trips :oops: ), finally decided to call it quits after 8-hrs and down $1000.

    I used Dahl's the next session when I coincidentally hit the 5th level on the 4-deuce split hand after about 30 mins of play (I guess if I had been using your system it woulda been a $1500 win instead of a $1200 win :wink: ) I left the casino after that shoe with a measly couple of hundred dollars in winnings but I guess the free room & board & whatnot made up fer it .. well at least for this trip :?

    Maybe next trip, I'll use your method in entirety and post my results here. Oh, btw, 1 reason I might not be getting to the 5th level as often as I should could be the fact that I was playing double deck & I took your advice to start the progression over on a new shoe. Oops..more "woulda, shoulda, coulda" :P

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