calling other progression betters
  • holler! long time poster, first time reader, boys.. just wanted to say hello.

    wanted to see who else in here swears by a progressive betting system. Right now i am trying to figure out how much bankroll is required at a minimum for my own personal use. I've played over a dozen times with a family member (larry Sr.) who over the last year has a 24/32 winning percentage at various casinos. Average win is $3400 and average loss $4800. In total, up over $40,000 on the year. He has accomplished this with a progressive betting strategy, no counting. 100% Basic strategy. 1 or 2 hands (if 1 hand, only 1 other player) @ $100. Buy-in is usually $4000. Start at 1 unit, and pump up 25-50% with each win: 100-150-200-250-300-400-600-800-1000-1250, etc. As soon as you lose a hand, back down to 1 unit. If you have the bankroll, i'm convinced that you can win with this method. At times the buy-in has swooned to $10k with no luck out of the gate. But eventually the streak of 6-7-8 hands in a row (hopefully with a double or split in there) comes, and you get it back or get up. I have seen over 12 hands in a row won at least 4 times. You have to be progressive betting when those runs hit! The 'crazies' who double down after a lost hand are nuts. Minimize bets while losing, and maximize while winning. It's a game of streaks!

    Phew. Anyways, i wanted to see if this system sounds similar to others used in here and was hoping to see what kind of bankroll you guys have had luck with. I'm close to committing myself to $25 tables with an initial $5k bankroll. Trying to find 'em while not crowded is tough though.

    Any thoughts from the hit or stand homies appreciated. Thanks!
  • ndlarryj - Welcome to the forum.....This will be short from me but I'll follow up in the morning if there are any questions left.

    1. Let's get off on the right foot - The $$$$ amount of your bet and/or your buy-in really doesn't mean "diddly-squat". All that matters is "units". (i.e. You buying in with $4k and having a $100 base bet is no different than Joe Blow buying in with $200 and having a $5 base bet). It is all relative so let's talk "apples to apples".

    2. That said, what you are really asking is what kind of bankroll do people use here in "units" with a progression like yours. There are many people here who use a positive progression and I imagine you will get plenty of responses.

    3. And tieing into 2. above....You asked if your "system" was similar to others used on this forum? The answer is "definitely". The first four steps of your betting ladder are identical to Walter Thomason's method described in "Twenty-First Century Blackjack", and Walter frequently posts here.

    4. Finally, I think you are asking if a 40/50 unit buy-in will work with your progression??....Personally I would say no, but let's let the positive progression players respond.

    There, that lays the groundwork.....Everybody "jump in".
  • ndlarryj- I also use a progression (2-1-2-3-4-5-etc.) and back to the beginning after a lost. And of course basic stradegy. My win % so far is 6 for 7. I only get to play about every other month. Hope to change that soon. As far as your question about proper bankroll most smart players will sit down with 40x the table min. for that session of play. Example: $10 table you need $400, $25 table you need $1000 to sit in. This buys you plenty of play time until you can start to ride those winning streaks. I will risk my whole 40 unit buy in just to acheive at least a 20 unit gain. I can remember going all the way down to just a few units left and coming back to leave with at least 60 units. It sounds like Larry Sr. is doing great with his progression, hope you do too, GOOD LUCK!
  • ndlarryj: I wish I could afford to bring thousands of $'s at the table when I play, but all I can afford myself is around $200-300 so that basically puts me at the $5-$10 tables only, although I love to play the $25 tables, I have learned that with my sort of bankroll it's risking too much so from now on I will religiously play at the $5-$10 tables ONLY.

    ndlarryj said:
    The 'crazies' who double down after a lost hand are nuts. Minimize bets while losing, and maximize while winning. It's a game of streaks!

    It doesn't matter if you lost a hand before, or have lost 10 straight previously. If you have a PROPER DD that BS dictates, you should always do it (unless of course counting cards, etc.), because when you Double you hold the upper advantage, whether it be up to a 62% Advantage (11 proper Double or a 52% Advantage (A/2 proper Double). Yes, it is a game of streaks, however, what is your definition of "while losing"... 2, 3, 4, 5 losses in a row? And if Renzey saw your post, he would quickly tell you that "Your previous hand doesn't affect your winning the next hand anymore than luck already dictates" or something like that, haha. You, as a progression player see it that way, and so do I, but I just want to know what your definition is of "while losing".

    As far as what progression I use, recently I tried the 2-3-4-5-5-5 up as you win progression from a v. strong BJ author on here, only moving up 1 level on a win and dropping back down to 2 units on a loss, and it's interesting. Although I didn't have much success (ended up breaking even), I think I'll have to try it out more in the future. Today, I used a modified-Dahl's progression, 1-1-2-2-3-3-4-4, skipping 2 on a NET-win double or split, 1 on a BJ and beginning again on a loss and ended up winning a $100, but I'm not a hardcore progressive player, YET :) I still have to test the waters out more, and see which one I'm more successful with.
  • ndlarryj: As Grifter stated, your system is similar to mine, but I cap off the top bet at two and one-half times the initial bet. From my experience, a two thousand dollar "swing" (up or down) isn't unusual with a $20 to $50 Positive Progression for a 3 to 4 hour session. This level of action fits my temperment -- my "comfort level" -- which I think is a serious consideration for most players. But I'll admit that in retrospect I've regretted limiting the max bet when "strings" of wins reach 9, 10, or 11 in a row...
  • How is it that I am constantly reading these >8 winning streaks, and up to 13 by SLD, when the odds of winning 10 straight after a little worse than 1:1666??? How come you guys are experiencing such massive win streaks when, the odds are so against you all? Does 1666 hands really come that often or something?? :shock:
  • I would suggest a 400unit as your total bank and 20unit s a buy in for 3 to 4hr play. Read Black Jack Attack. Although the sims are for pure card counters they are good to look at for risk management. Two thousand $swing is a lot for a $50 progression Walt!!!

  • hey, thanks for the replys, guys, appreciate your input.. i'll let you know how things go.. not sure if i'll be out to the boat for about 2 weeks.

    i think 40x bankroll sounds like a good buy-in. through larry sr. i've seen 100x required on a few trips before you get to the positive run.

    and BuGhOu§eMASTER, sorry for my sloppy writing above.. what i meant to discourage was the betting system whereby as soon as you lose a hand, you double your bet on the next hand (not merely doubling-down on a good hand if the preceeding hands were lost). I actually have heard people say this is how they play (double your bet after each loss). How dumb is that?!
  • Bug: Progressive bettors tend to remember the win streaks when they happen. In my last 7 hours of play, I've had win streaks of 9, 10, and 11 consecutive hands, as well as many streaks of 4 or 5 consecutive hands. Since I usually play two hands at uncrouded tables with fast dealers, I average about 180 hands an hour, and would have played about 720 hands during this period. Two possible explainations: 1. I've been lucky. 2. Clusters of winning hands occur more often in real casino play than is predicted by theoretical math. I think that Possibility #2 is more likely.
    Note: I can remember one occasion when I won or pushed EVERY HAND in a six deck shoe, playing head-to-head with the dealer... Go figure...
  • Wow Walt, pretty good!! I wish I get lucky like that somtimes :)
    On your progression, why do you cap it only 2.5x the orig. bet? There a specific reason for this, given that you've hit 10 and 11 wins in a row before? Also, I was wondering if 1666 hands happen real fast in order to merit all these winning streaks I'm hearing of that much because 1:1666 is the odds of winning 10 in a row..

    larry: It's all good... now I understand you. Yeah, I dont believe in doubling on a loss either... that's just insane. It's better to solidify your winnings than to lose it all!!
  • My avg win at the $50 level is around $400. However, my system Take5 I start thinking about exiting around 5 units. Most of the time I win about 7units . Which is not bad considering for AC rules the average is supposedly 15units for a card counter.

  • sld007 is back!!! I use my 007 progression (xx2x2x3x3x4x4x and back to x) at the 25 table with a 500 buy in (although i bring 3000 with me) and quit the shoe if i lose 5 hands in a row. so far, have a 67% win oercentage---not huge wins (500-1000) but still wins nevertheless.
  • For what it is worth here is what I use, it is a combination of things learned and tried, I have played it 3 times at the casino and had wins of 700, 415 and 310 thus far and it has worked good in trails of free play online. It may sound a little complicated I know. My unit is 25 bucks, bankroll is 10k take 3k per casino trip. buy in for 500. first bet of each shoe is 1 unit play till win, after 1st win play 2 more hands that win or loose pushes count as nothing. After those hands begin a 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 until loose progression, also if after that initial win if you win the next 2 hands procceed that as a 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 progression. After a loss in either progression begin another 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 progression. If you have a double or split win or loss it only counts as one win or loss. When starting another progression if you loose 3 consecutive 2 unit bets you revert back to one unit and play just like we started the shoe with 1 unit also if Dealer gets blackjack or you have 2 consecutive pushes, or an Ace split, you must revert back to the 1 unit til win then 2 more, just as we done at the start of the shoe. This seems to work fine as the long losing streaks are for 1 unit while the good streaks are for 4 units. Personally if I get a push at the 4 unit I play the next hand at 1 unit and if it wins I then go back to 4 if win. I have found a push toward the end of a run indicates a loss more often than not. I play 8 deck shoe games das,h17 no surrender. I play BS with exeption of I hit 11vsA, hit 10-2vs4, stand on other 12vs.4, stand on any 3 card 16 that contains a 4 or 5, and use the rule of 9 on soft doubles. try it for yourself, good luck to all.
  • I use something I call the hybrid martingale. I call it hybrid because I combine the power of the progressive system with the recovery power of the regressive system. I do not double down after a loss because it would wipe out the bankroll too quickly. I will explain this in pieces.

    My main structure is what I call a 1 unit progression. I start with a $10 unit and increase one unit for every loss up to $100. Once I have gained one unit the progression starts over. This is a regressive system. You are increasing your bets when you lose.

    Once I reach $50 in profit I lay down a $50 bet. This is the progressive betting because you are increasing with your wins. Win or lose you start over with a one unit progression again and work towards your next $100.

    I only take $1,000 per trip. Total bankroll is $5,000. I can usually double this. I have only done this in simulations so far, no actual casino play, but I have been prepping.

    On a final note, I use this in combination with card counting. The system is flexible so that I can jump up to $100+ per hand if the count gets hot. I also may chose to end the progression early if the count goes cold or negative. I have found the only time when I really get in trouble with this system is when I become too aggressive. This occurs when the count is hot and I am throwing out $100 chips. I use the wizard of odds card counting program to practice and my average session is a $1,000 gain in under an hour, usually 30 to 45 minutes. I have done over 200 tests with this and the system seems to be working very well. I am up over $100,000. It is virtual money and not the real thing. The only thing stopping me from entering the casinos is that I have a hard time keeping the count straight. I am good for a little bit but after a while I start making stupid mistakes that throw the count off... I keep practicing.
  • Here is the progression that I am comfortable with: I start with two chips, then add 1 for a total of 3, then add 2 more for a total of 5, then add 3 for a total of 8, then add 4 for a total of 12, etc. 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, 17, 23, 30, 38, 47, 57, 68, 80, etc. It's a lot of fun. With this progression, I can easily play at any table. I start with a bankroll that is 300 times the value of one chip, e.g. if you using $5 chips, my bankroll is $1500.

    I keep an eye on the size of my bank. When I lose 1/3 of it, I move on.

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