name |
message |
date |
| Desert Dog |
Bughousemaster, you're absolutely right. I had a nagging feeling it sounded too good. |
2003-07-30 08:57:18 |
| Desert Dog |
There's a reason I graduated high school (long ago) with a D in math. Thanks Renzey. |
2003-07-30 08:54:48 |
| Renzey |
To Dog and Bug; You don't double the multiplication of the probability for 10/10 because they're both the same card. You do double it for Ace/9 because you're drawing from two separate supplies of cards. The frequency of any kind of two card 20 is 10.6%.
Those percentages remain constant for any number of players at the table. Your odds don't change whether you receive the 1st and 3rd shuffled cards out of the shoe -- or the 7th and the 14th. What does change things, and this is SO important is the probability of getting various hands when the cards in the shoe have become skewed high or skewed low. For example, you'll be dealt a B/J once every 21 hands "on average". But if you're halfway through the shoe and only 50 Aces and 10's combined have been dealt rather than the normal total of 60, then your chances of being dealt a B/J are 1 in 15! That's the time to put out your 10 unit bet -- not when you've just won 5 hands in a row, which has nothing to do with your next hand. |
2003-07-30 08:14:00 |
| Iceman |
Renzey - All that engineering schooling did pay off, who cares how how you came up with the numbers, or what software/spreadsheets you are using, just the facts please. You are the man. Any workings in the process for a Bluebook III, perhaps it could contain every blackjack formula/caculations ever devised. Buyer beware, graduate school level math required. |
2003-07-29 22:28:37 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
idano desert, that 20% seems tooooooo high... that would mean that 1 out of every 5 hands you're gonna get some form of 20... I wish man!! :( I think renzey's 10.6% of the time makes more sense for that. |
2003-07-29 22:24:05 |
| Desert Dog |
Right, so you have an 18.9% chance of two 10's, plus a 1.2% chance of A/9 or 9/A, so a total chance of 20.1% of getting 20 in two cards. Renzey and I hit the "submit" button about the same time, so I hadn't seen what he pointed out about my earlier wrong calculation that blackjack would only occur 2.4% of the time. |
2003-07-29 22:03:49 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Renzey, does your figuration of 6-deck 20 or BJ (first 2 cards) matter with the amount of PLAYERS at a table or have any outlying FACTORS that would mess it up? |
2003-07-29 21:59:05 |
| ZIPPER |
Yes but read RENZEY'S COMMMENTS right below your last comments. Your 2.4% is only half right. Your 9.5% does NOT include A/9 hands which are just as good as 2 10s. |
2003-07-29 21:54:54 |
| Renzey |
To Zipper; With six decks a 10/10 is dealt 96/312 x 95/311 times, or 9.4% of the time. Then an Ace/9 comes 24/312 x 24/311 times, or 0.6% of the time.
Finally a 9/Ace also comes 24/312 x 24/311 times for another 0.6% showing. Total is 10.6% for a two card 20. |
2003-07-29 21:48:38 |
| Desert Dog |
My post just below needs to be corrected to include what Renzey just said. You can get a 10/A, or you can get an A/10, so the occurrence of any two card combination is double what my grid would suggest. |
2003-07-29 21:46:46 |
| Desert Dog |
Do a grid in Excel with "2" thru "Ace" across the top and again down the side, and the next row and column with the respective percentage occurrence of those cards. 30.8% (16/52) of the cards are 10's. 7.7% (4/52) of the cards are anything else. Then fill in the grid with the multiplication of the percent at the top times the percent at the left. There are 100 different two-card combinations. Chance of getting two tens is 30.8% times 30.8% = 9.5%. Chance of getting ten plus anything else (including Ace), by my calculations, is 30.8% times 7.7% = 2.4%. Chance of any other two-card combination, including pairs and softs, is 7.7% times 7.7% = 0.6%. Is this what you're referring to, Zipper? |
2003-07-29 21:43:41 |
| Renzey |
To Desert Dog; You were on the right track. Now you need to double that 2.4% because you can be dealt an Ace/10 as well as a 10/Ace. With one deck, it's a blackjack every 20.7 hands and with six decks it comes once every 21.05 hands. |
2003-07-29 21:38:57 |
| Renzey |
To Zebra; You can be dealt hard unpaired totals of 5 through 19 on two cards (15 hands) against 10 different dealer upcards totalling 150 hands. You can be dealt soft totals from A/2 through A/8 and A/10 aginst 10 upcards totalling 80 more hands. You can be dealt ten different pairs against 10 upcards totalling 100 more hands. And you can make a non-blackjack 21 (such as 6/7/8) against 10 different upcards for the final 10 hands. That's 340 different valued hand situations. |
2003-07-29 21:32:57 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Renzey, thanks for clearing that up. Well apparently the BJ book, Best Blackjack and Get The Edge @ BJ are wrong because they say to SURRENDER them, probably cuz of my thinking listed below. How odd! |
2003-07-29 21:32:39 |
| Renzey |
To Bug; Winning progressions based upon the previous result do not increase your chance of winning your larger bets. That's merely betting more because you won your last hand, but your chance of winning the hand which that new, larger bet is riding on is virtually the same as if you had lost the last hand. That's why you'll just end up winning 43% of your 1 unit bets, 43% of your 1.5 unit bets, 43% of your 8 unit bets, etc. And where does that put you? In the same place you'd have been by betting a constant amount on every hand! It's true, progressions don't actually harm your results, technically speaking. But in the end they will be the millstone around your neck that sinks you because they become the focal point of your game -- thereby precluding you from becoming aware of things that can actually turn you into a long term winner. There are some very important things to notice at the blackjack table, and whether you won or lost the last hand is not one of them. Yet, this is what everybody fixates on.
Also, You should split, rather than surrender 8/8 vs. a 10. Here are the numbers.
Hitting wins 23 and loses 77 out of 100 for a net loss of 54 bets. Splitting wins 38 x 2 and loses 62 x 2 for a net loss of 48 bets. Surrendering loses 0.5 bets all 100 times for a net loss of 50 bets. |
2003-07-29 21:20:27 |
| ZIPPER |
BUG YOU are obviosly SMART enough to fgure it out, HOW DO YOU THINK THE CALCULATIONS SHOULD BE DONE? USE YOUR BRAINS instead of DEMANDING THAT I PROVE BASIC MATH TO YOU. heres a tip what arre all the possible hands you could be dealt how many of them come up 20 19 WHATEVER? NOT COMPLICATED STUFF EVEN ON IN LOUISIANA |
2003-07-29 21:09:41 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Heh, sld... that's cool of you to say that. Zipper, SHOW ME THE CALCULATIONS and how you derived that %? What about for HARD 19?! |
2003-07-29 20:56:41 |
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