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| Midnite |
Here is a prime example of "played it right" and still lost... Friday night I was playing $5 to $25. I had a greenie out ($25) I drew 8-8. Dealer had a 3 up, so I split. First 8, I get a 3, so I DD. Draw a 3 and DD. I get a 2. Second 8, I get another dang 8 and split it again. Second 8, I draw a 2 and DD. I get a 5. Third 8, I get a 3 and DD again. I draw an Ace. Dealer has a 4 under the 3 and NOW, a face card shows up. A little ol' 17 and I lose $150. Next shoe I get 8-8-8-8. I have four hands with $25 on each (dealer had a 4 up) No DD this time, but dealer has a 7 under the 4 and makes 21. Lost another $100. Three hours later, I am up a BUCK.... The dealers made more than I did. Twenty minutes latter I am up over $150 and take a break. Hate's Eights. I may not have liked like them Fri. night and if I get those hands again, I would play them....... THE SAME WAY. |
2003-05-11 01:20:23 |
| Midnite |
bjcanada- Grifter gave you some good advice. If you are going to play the CSM's, you must use basic strategy. Because you won with a "feeling" was just luck. Remember this - "Wrong may right, but not all night". You may win a hand of 12, by standing against the dealers 7 or Ace. BUT if you stand on "all" of your 12's against the 7 or Ace, you Will Lose....(just two extreme examples) I am not getting on you case, it's just the Grifter is the BEST BJ player that I know. If he says something, I would listen to him. |
2003-05-11 00:51:41 |
| bjcanada |
thanx Grifter.....but if the cards are continuously shuffled and returned to the machine....what HAS been dealt
will have no bearing on whats left....there is no discard pile.....there is always 5 decks in the machine...
from what i could count and im only learning....seemed like a pretty even count...but i could be wrong.....maybe csa_spy is right..... just go with the GUT>>.how ever THIS IS THE BEST SITE!!!!!!!! |
2003-05-10 20:23:06 |
| Mike |
Huh? |
2003-05-10 15:34:10 |
| Ron T |
Follow up to 4/19 & 4/20 BS adjustments comments. I've taken the Hand Probabilites figures from the Expected Value Table for 8D,S17,DOA,DAS,RSA0,RSP4 as provided by CARARULO on www.bjmath.com. 8,8 vs A =-.51446(hitting); =-.36603(splitting). Both give negative expectations and by splitting you gain a 15% advantage over hitting [-.51446-(-36603)]=-.148 or -15%. You still have a negative net expectations of losing 36.6 more hands out of a 100. My recommendation using a progressive betting system was to surrender when your progression reaches 3 times it's initial bet which for me is $30. 100 hands X $30 X .50(surrender value) = $1500 loss. 36.6 hands X $30 = $1,098 loss from splitting. I know I will have a greater loss ($402 more) by not splitting @ $30, but I'm a $10 bettor so walking away with $15 in a losing situation is a plus for me. If I don't walk away, then doesn't my progressive betting just revert back to the casino's advantage of .42% and the progressive betting system is all for not. Comments? |
2003-05-10 06:53:14 |
| Grifter |
Bjcanada – Midnite is gone (back today) so I’ll respond. You most definitely want to play perfect BS with a CSM. BS is at it’s most accurate point at the start of a shoe. That is how it was derived. After only a few hands, the ratio of high/low cards will change the absolutely correct play, but you only know this if you are counting……Same thing with splitting 10’s. It would be pure suicide to split them at the start of a shoe. Off the top of my head, I would say it would cost you about 20 units for every 100 times you did it. |
2003-05-10 06:30:45 |
| bjcanada |
i still have questions regarding csm.our local yokels have them now and the dealers hate them(no shuffle breaks).however the dealers say they seem to be paying out more.
more dealer bust.but,,if you cant count cards,then does basic strategy no longer apply???
i stood on 10,4 to dealer 9..you should hit; he drew 3/10/bust.this seemed to work 3 or 4 other times..you may as well split 10's now if you cant count/ who cares???to csa-spy ...this is the best site for strategy...but ill be interested in what the boy's have to say...thanx all. |
2003-05-10 05:31:22 |
| Devil's Advocate |
sld007 - Read Midnite's post and he is right about the Martingale...BUT, there are many other common negative progressions you could look into if you choose. D'Alembert, Labouchre, and Oscar's Grind for example. None of these have the volativity of the Martingale.
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2003-05-10 05:04:41 |
| csa_spy |
not sure about this. when i use the rules here i lose money
when i just go with the feel of it, i win money. not so sure about this site |
2003-05-10 04:29:11 |
| sld007 |
devil-see midnite's 4/24/2003 comment as to why you should not use a negative progression. As usual, midnite needs only a few sentences to capture the essence of what is bad about martingale. |
2003-05-09 14:46:11 |
| sld007 |
devil - That is not correct. It is I admit a bit of a grind but at the end of the day I walk away with more $$ than I came in with about 2/3 of the time. If you use Dahl (50,50,75,75) you are ahead if you W-W-L. |
2003-05-09 14:41:21 |
| Devil's Advocate |
Phil/sld007: Have you guys ever tried a negative progression instead of these positive ones you post about?....SLD, A 1/2/3/4 positive progression is extremely volatile. W/L you lose 1 unit; W/W/L and you are just even; W/W/W/L and you win two units (the same as flat betting). It takes a streak of four wins to pay off. Do you know the odds on that per 100 hands? |
2003-05-09 14:12:10 |
| Phil G. |
Sorry sld007 for using your name on the last message.
Phil |
2003-05-09 11:27:38 |
| sld007 |
Thanks for the advice. I have tried stopping mid-shoe and that does help. I have not tried the 2 hands when a shoe is against me, although when the shoe is working for me I will play 2 hands. I use a 2-1-2-3-4-5 progression, maybe next time I will play two hands but with 1 unit each and a simple 1-2-3-4 progression. If it works it would be a vast improvement over switching tables or watching others play BJ. |
2003-05-09 11:26:46 |
| sld007 |
Phil G. - A twist on the "leave if you lose 4 hands ina row" philosophy is to just lay out a few hands (if there is mid shoe entry allowed) and get back in later, or start playing two hands--I know it sounds funny, but I can't tell you how many times I've lost 4-5 in a row only to have it all turned around and won4-500 for the shoe by playing two hands. Just do a Dahl or Thomason type progression on each hand and try to keep chip stacks separate. |
2003-05-09 11:18:52 |
| Phil G. |
Itonater - I think we have all been there! Discipline is key. One area where I have trouble following "the rules" is switching tables after I lose 4 hands in a row. I play BJ in Minnesota & Wisconsin, (Vegas once a year) so the Casinos are small and crowded and I am lazy. Switching tables is not always easy to do. |
2003-05-09 09:19:23 |
| itonater |
Always have a win/loss limit! I learned this the hard way. Walked in with $150, was up to $475 in one hour! I was planning to gamble for five hours, so I stayed, and i paid. Lost it all. It feels terrible leaving the casino knowing you could've walked away with some money. If you're up, WALK AWAY! Have a meal, watch a show. Just WALK! |
2003-05-09 08:54:34 |
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