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| Doc |
While I have a bunch of BJ books they generally fall into 3 catagories, a)high level books by folks like Wong and Schlesinger that are not doing me much good since I'm still at the stage (and may never get there, thanks ADD) where I can count consistantly in the casino, b)beginner,ploppy easy money system books which I hope I have grown out of and c)a book I have just gotten which claims to improve the intermeadiate game, and seems to address some of those 'variables' that I've talked about wanting to have in my game in my earlier posts, ie something that improves your House Advantage deficit based on improving your blackjack game playing ability. The new edition is just out, Blackjack Bluebook II by Renzey. Right now I would recommend it to the Strong players wanting to explore a level of play just above BS alone and below counting, but I'm an easy sell on these sorts of things so I would appreciate a good critique by other more experienced players . |
2003-07-10 15:47:17 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Oh yeah, one more thing... how about we compare Doubling Down A8v5-2 now, as far as seeing how much money we will lose and the closeness it relates to doubling the best time to do (against a 6). Also, what is the statistical probability for doubling on A9v6? A9v2-5? |
2003-07-10 15:18:21 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Ed, those figures dont seem to add up, either that or I'm not adding them properly! 10% + 17+ is only 27%, and if he only busts ~43% of the time, where's the other 30%?? Wow, if the difference b/t A8v6 paying only 1 cent lower then a dollar (on average), then I might just start doing that baby!!! :) Heh... For some reason I have a hard time STANDING on A8!! (eventhough I follow STRICT BS @ the casinos). Now, your stats about dealer breaking with 6 up & 10% & 17% of getting those assigned values... do they depend on the # of DECKS being played? Or are those figures always the same regardless if you're playing Single Deck (where you're SUPPOSED to double on A8v6), Double, or any sort of multi-deck/CSM?? Also, do you have AIM? I do, just add a 21 at the end of my name if you would like... I'd love to add several STRONG-knowledged BJ players like yourself to my list!!
Doc - some are from his head and from massive experience playing, others are from bjmath.com which I still need to download!! Also, which BJ book do you have? |
2003-07-10 15:06:28 |
| Doc |
Mr. Ed, I just got a book with some of those numbers, as I'm getting more comfortable with BS, thinking about those odds at the table is something I'm starting to pay attention to, what do you use as your references? |
2003-07-10 14:37:37 |
| Mr. Ed |
Bughousemaster, Doubling A8v6 pays 0.48, standing pays 0.49. Like I said, not much of a difference. And again, a counter will double A8v6 once the true count hits +1.......Dealer breaks with a 6: 42.6% of the time; with a 5 he breaks 42.0%. 6 is better for the player (but not by much! the small difference surprized ME!?)....I don't know about doubling BJ, but if you split 10s, and get an A, I know you can double.....Here's something (I find) interesting; with a 6 showing the dealer has about a 10% chance of getting an 18, 19, 20 or 21 and a 17% chance of getting a 17. |
2003-07-10 13:53:25 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Hey Ed, thanks again for your nice replies. Actually, when I said that, I meant that 8/13 cards will GIVE YOU A PAT HAND (17 & >)... not necessarily BETTER. Guess that's my fault on that.. and yeah, eventhough it's only 43% he will bust, that's very close to 50% of the time he will be busting (the highest % of ANY dealer-up card so obviously this is the ideal card we WISH to see EVERY hand), actually if he displays a 5 OR 6 the % of dealer breaking are equal(according to what I saw) but for some reason, having a 6 up is more favorable to the players, then a 5. Come to think about it, I'm wondering why the calculated busting % of dealer 6 isn't HIGHER then the % of dealer 5 up... weird huh!! Actually, the best hand that you could get with a stiff 5 (2 3) wold be 16 and not 15 because you forgot the possibility of drawing an Ace, but yes, I see your point.
What makes 19 & 20 SO MUCH STRONGER then 18 (soft hands)? Exactly HOW MUCH better is having a 19 or 20 vs. an 18, to be so much better than in 6-deck BS says to NEVER double down on soft 19 or higher? Also, another thing that I would most likely never do, but was just wondering... is DOUBLING DOWN allowed on Blackjack? Of course BJ pays 3:2 but 2:1 is even better (for the EXTREMELY GREEDY PLAYER)! |
2003-07-10 13:17:35 |
| McFlaherty |
Grifter and/or Midnite - could you guys give me a little synopsis of the wong's halves counting system? I have the hi-low system down pretty much to a tee, but of course I'm always looking for some variation or different system that will give me that extra little edge. Also, what the heck is the UPC, the BC, the PI, and the IC? |
2003-07-10 13:11:08 |
| Mr. Ed |
Bughousemaster, here's another thought that might help clarify the 5v6 decision. All stiff hands are losers facing ANY dealer up card. By doubling 5, the best hand you can get is 15, which is still a loser against any dealer up card (including 6), but now you have a doubled bet. :( ........Also, the chance of a dealer busting with 6 up is only 43% - which means he gets a pat hand 57% of the time!....Also, when you say 8/13 cards help you with A8,A9 that's not entirely true. With A9, only A helps you: 10 leaves you the same, 7,8 and 9 leave you worse....I used to think the same way - why not double A9? I'll get a 10 and then I'll win TWO bets with my 20! The answer is that there is only a 4/13 (5/13 including A) chance of keeping that good hand. Now I'll have twice the bet with a crappy hand :( Well live and learn.....Keep up the good questions! |
2003-07-10 11:50:37 |
| sld007 |
ronnie ron - Try Dahl or Thomason. Gotta catch a plane going to the Shoe. |
2003-07-10 09:36:06 |
| Mr. Ed |
Bet $1. Double 5v6 lose $0.30. Hit 5v6: win $0.00 (less than a penny). It's a BIG difference - stick to hitting. :) |
2003-07-10 06:30:43 |
| Mr. Ed |
Bughousemaster, your intuition about A8 and A9 v5,6 is correct - 19 and 20 are very strong hands. That is exactly why you do not double. However, standing is only marginally better than doubling - in fact you double A8v6 at TC=+1 and A8v5 at +2.....There are expected value tables at bjmath.com that will answer your double 5v5or6 question....I've been spending way too much time on this board, so someone else will have to give you detailed explainations. |
2003-07-10 05:10:23 |
| NorCalBJ |
For a different perspective than some others on the board: I am a counter and very much enjoy it. I would rather be playing BJ and counting cards than just about anywhere. I guess it is just different for different people, but I would never tell someone not to do something because I personally don't like it. Let them try counting, if they don't like it, they can use betting systems. |
2003-07-09 23:03:46 |
| ronnie ron |
Thabks for the responses! I was wondering what the best progressive system is out there? |
2003-07-09 18:06:36 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Thanks Mr. Ed. That cleared it up a lot for me!!
I was also wondering... in a 6 deck game, BS says to ALWAYS stand on soft 19-20 but DOUBLE DOWN on soft 17-18 against 3-6. I dont understand this. Because with soft 17-21, there are always 8 out of 13 cards that can help you and the same goes for soft 19-20 so why does it not say to DOUBLE on 19 & 20? I do realize 19 & 20 are very strong hands, but still... 3-6 they're most likely gonna bust anyway and 62% of the cards are gonna help you so why only stay on soft 19? 2ndly, can someone tell me how bad DOUBLING a hard 5 (2 3) is against a 5-6 up? I've never done this, but I'm just thinking about these possibilities against BS... certainly I would never even CONSIDER doubling a HARD 17-20 for example, but doubling 5 against 5-6 is somewhat different. The way I am looking at it - if I draw a 10 (4/13 chances for that value) I'd have a 15, and if I ORIGINALLY had a hard 15 I would stand ANYWAY against a 3-6, how much more 5-6... and if on my hard 5 I'd draw say, a 2, of course I'd only have 7 but that'd be like staying on 12-16 HOPING the dealer would bust anyway... I hope this isn't confusing anyone... I just wanna have some explanations ^_^ Thanks! |
2003-07-09 17:45:02 |
| Mr. Ed |
Bughousemaster, several good questions - here are some (good?) answers.....Yes, it is possible that a dealer draws a 5, then a 10, if he has a 6 showing. It's also possible to draw a 9, then a 10 with a 2 showing - anything can happen. But with a 2, there are only 4 out of 13 cards that will give a dealer a stiff hand (12-16). With a 6 showing, there are 9 cards that produce a stiff hand. So on an expected basis, the dealer's 6 is much better than a 2....You hit 12v2&3 because your chance of busting is small, and the dealer's chance of getting a pat hand is good. Unfortunately, you should still expect to lose when you hit 12v2,3, but you'll lose less than if you hit instead. |
2003-07-09 11:45:33 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Hey guys! Long time no talk on here... Summer's got me busy!! Anyway, I was wondering when the dealer shows 2 & 3 that it considered "wild" and whe you have 12 against those that you should hit. I think it's cuz that if they have 6-8 in the hole, if the draw a 10 they have a made hand, and THEREFORE, that's why 2 & 3 is wild... is the ONLY reason? Cuz if so I dont understand because the same thing can happen when the dealer's showing 4-6 as well, the supposed worst 3 cards the dealer could be showing (most beneficial to the player), the dealer could just have a 3-5 in the hole, and when he draws he could AGAIN just draw a 10 and then he'd have the same thing that he'd have if he showed the 2/3 & had 6-8 in the hole! So... what exactly makes 2 & 3 wild if the EXACT same situation can be varied slightly with (diff. cards) if the dealer is showing 4-6? If this is the case, then *any* card can be "wild" ... Hopefully someone (or multiple ppl) can explain this to me! Thank you! |
2003-07-09 10:22:54 |
| Mr. Ed |
Itonator, I disagree! I'm having plenty of fun when I'm counting cards. Once you get the hang of it, it is very natural, almost effortless. Counting is like breathing. However, it does take many, many hours of practice to get to that level! |
2003-07-09 08:38:42 |
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