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itonater Any Canadian gamblers here? I live in the great white north, so I go to Casino Niagra often. Because it's so close to the border, I meet many Americans at that casino. I guess they like pyschological "bonus" cash from the exchange rate. :) Oh yeah, those CSM machines are taking over Niagra. I see more and more tables with CSMs rather than shoes on each subsequent visit. I prefer the shoes, as they have the built-in shuffling break that allows you to clear your head for a while. 2003-07-07 08:14:46
BJ Jedi Desert Dog- regards to your comparing to the flat betting- in your first simulation you said +$545 for the 123letitride, and -$600 for flat betting? through experience and simulations, I never come up with that big of a spread between a progression system and the boring old flat betting- given betting amount and # of hands, although, I haven't run the 123letitride. The "Let it ride" press must make the difference. I'll apply it to some of my saved simulations and see what happens. I see at least one Martingale fan here. I personally dont like Mgale, although some sites out there are just as adament about it being the best strategy as I am (and others here are)against it. I cant overlook two things in favor of martingale though-1) the casino's themselves set limits on tables to thwart that system at a point.(why would they- if it were going to help them make money?) 2) the dealers have tried to discourage mgale users at talbles I've been playing at before- It's hard for me to see a casino actually trying to help a player. I would advise all to run your own simulations, thousands of hands, and apply different strategies to see for yourself which you like and trust the best- just dont switch back and forth while sitting at a table, that's the human element the casino is hoping for, stick to your guns PS I'm glad to see we have an intelligent group here of BJ players, along with some harmless humor as well. Oh, and BJ in my name stands for blackjack in case there were any concerns. 2003-07-07 06:48:22
Midnite Desert Dog- Forget pushes. Your w/p (win percent) was (1) 46.60% (2) 37.76% and (3) 49.16% Total of 764 hands 348/416 = 45.54% See if this is right.. You won $45. Then lost $500. Then won $705. Net win $250 ? 2003-07-06 22:48:01
Desert Dog 3. Third simulation. This one is a dangerous lure. After 200 hands, losing 91 (45%), winning 88 (44%) and pushing 21 (11%), my original buy-in of $500 is now up to $1205. That’s right, I’m up $705 virtual dollars. Part of that is lucky outcomes twice when my bet had to be $120, because I had to let ride a winning double on a $30 bet. This of course is the way I’d like it to go in reality when I go to Vegas later this month. 2003-07-06 21:31:28
Desert Dog 2. Second simulation. I only got to 156 hands before losing the full $500. Lost 89 (57%), won 54 (34%), pushed 13 (9%). A real bucket of cold water. No progression pattern saves you from cards like this. I lost 35 more hands than I won. But notice, unless I’m figuring something wrong, that means if I had been betting a steady $20 (my “base” bet), I would have lost $700, not $500. 2003-07-06 21:29:32
Desert Dog 1. More on progression betting using the 1-2-3 Let It Ride system. I’m breaking this into three posts. First simulation. Base bet $20, low $10, high $30, except for “let it ride” after winning a double or split . I played the simulation I started a few days ago, through to 500 hands and ended up losing 236 hands (47%), won 206 (41%), and pushed 58 (12%). Very typical statistics. Ending bankroll: $545 for a net gain of $45, yet lost 30 more hands than I won. Flat betting outcome would have been a loss of $600 (I think). 2003-07-06 21:28:14
TripleDeluxe Desert Dog: thanks for your intersting read on my post (have been away from my computer all day and came back to so MUCH to read): you seem to have a bead on this here whole board. Hey, I got my first tattoo in Tucson, maybe I'll come back for another and we can play some bj. The Black & Decker joke cracked me up. Doc: no offense taken: I've watched enough hip hop videos to understand the whole crotch grab phenomenon: it's a very subtle and complicated gesture. D thanks for your nice words. Midnite, thanks for everything. And good luck, okohiored! If you lose your money, you can go out to the desert and study the petroglyphs. Even if you don't lose: it's so stunning... 2003-07-06 20:43:46
Midnite Hey Doc, I have this pain in my neck and thought you may know what it is. It is right next to my okohiored bone. (Sorry okohored, just fun-n.) 2003-07-06 17:35:34
Midnite Thanks D, but it was Desert Dog that ask what progression you were using. Glad you had fun and won. 2003-07-06 17:14:11
Desert Dog Doc -- If you get out to visit your brother, the casino in Tucson that just did a major expansion is Casino del Sol. http://www.casinodelsol.com. I get the "CSI" picture now. Black & Decker rather than scalpels, right? After your first two losing sessions the other night, congrats on sticking to the plan and coming out a winner. 2003-07-06 15:10:50
Doc last note to okohiored 2003-07-06 14:53:17
Doc I'm no math expert and am still a neophyte at BJ but think the main critique of your plan lies in the concept of 'varience' 2003-07-06 14:52:38
Desert Dog Did it again yesterday. Dropped in to nearest casino; had time to kill because I had to wait to pick someone up at the mall close by. Bought in for 20 units, walked out 20 minutes later after I exceeded my win limit, cashing in 32 units. Used the 1-2-3 progression, and got lucky on some splits and doubles. 2003-07-06 14:51:00
Doc Mea Culpa, to both our canine monikered friends, just my dyslexia kicking in, I of course have you firmly located in Arizona, Desert Dog, in my cognitive map. With some of the crudities that get posted here occasionally I wanted to be sure that I hadn't offended anyone. Deer Dog Deluxe, thanks for your thoughts. Now I haven't used a stethescope in years, remember my specialty is that CSI thing, if something is still beating in my 'Patients' I lose all fortitude, genital or otherwise, and panic. You can usually readily recognize me in a casino though, I have an unlit cigar in my mouth and I like to wear my Disney shirt with Grumpy the dwarf on it. I am looking forward to the day when Midnite and maybe Grifter get back to the Delta and sits down with Deer Dog Deluxe, me and any others that can get to Tunica. I've got a brother in Tucson who I owe a visit too so if I get out there I'll try to make it to some of the Arizona houses. 2003-07-06 14:46:49
D Midnite, I used "D's progression". I increased my bet (usually just a red) as I had winning streaks and back to my basic bet on a loss. I read all the posts here, but so far have only studied the basic-Basic Strategy rules. I'm successful because my goal is to have fun and walk away at even money most times. I have been doing that so far. The most fun is sitting down as a middle-aged school teacher (and I look like one) and showing up some of the so-called experts. Deer Dog, I love your philosophical reflection of BJ. 2003-07-06 14:46:16
okohiored Example lets say I won 100 before I lost 4 in a row and now am down 50.00 after losing 4 in a row.I am now hoping the odds of losing 7 in a row outmatch the loss of 50.00.Am I being realistic in assuming this or the fact that I lost 4 has no bearing on losing three more in a row ? 2003-07-06 14:36:36
Desert Dog Doc, we have too many handles starting with D here. you meant to reply to (Ms) Deer Dog Deluxe, not me. I'm Desert Dog, a guy in Arizona. The way I read Deer Dog Deluxe's post didn't look to me like she was accusing you of macho swagger. It was her interesting alternative take on what happens in casinos. While obviously I can't speak for Deer Dog Deluxe, I doubt she or anyone thinks your choice of the word 'cojones' was sexist. Especially not after some other posts we've just seen. From what I've read, I believe you and DDD both live in Mississippi. She graciously passed on your invitation to join you hunting, but maybe you'll cross paths in a local casino. Wear your stethoscope so you can be recognized. 2003-07-06 14:27:17

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