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| Midnite |
Still no good. The problem here is "risk & return" your risk is too great vs the return. You will lose five hands in a row once every 38 hands (on average) There are much better way to bet your $$. |
2003-06-30 15:52:15 |
| okohiored |
try this midnight5-10-20-40-80 if you lose than 100 bets for next five bets.hoping if you win 4 out these 10 hands you can cut your losses and still have chance at streak and still have some martingale effect |
2003-06-30 15:45:21 |
| okohiored |
thanks midnight your right but seems you could go 4-5 hands and not get burnt to bad.5-10-20-40-80 this seems better than 5 indivuadual 5.00 bets . your thoughts |
2003-06-30 15:29:16 |
| Midnite |
Ah, the ol' Mortingale rears its ugly head again. It is a "sure" loser. I doubt you could find a 5 to 5,000 game and even if you did, it would still lose. You would have a lot of small wins, only to have them all wiped out (and more) by the eventual string of losses. By the 10 th bet you are risking $2,560 to win FIVE dollars. What is wrong with that picture ? You are over the limit by the 11 th bet. Now if they would let you make it, you are now risking $5,120, still trying to win $5. Losing that many hands in a row will happen.... Don't Play It. |
2003-06-30 15:18:10 |
| okohiored |
martingale double each time you lose starting at 5-10-20-40-80-160-320-640-1280-2560-5000 the limit-you win all your intial bets and all 3-2 blackjacks bets this way,But what are chances of losing 12 in a row ? |
2003-06-30 15:11:09 |
| Midnite |
The bust factor. That is why you do not double an 11, against the Ace. (unless you "are" counting cards) Almost half of your double down wins will come from the dealer breaking. He will only "bust" about 20% of the time, with an Ace up. |
2003-06-30 15:02:38 |
| okohiored |
any thoughts to martingale system in a 5-5000 game my take is you win every bet you make unless you lose 11 in a row.what are chances of losing 11 in a row.anybody ever tried this martingale |
2003-06-30 14:56:32 |
| Mr. Ed |
Desert Dog, correct!.....Bughousemaster, my apologies about 11vA. I misread your post....Actually, with 11vA, there is no "fear" of the dealer having BJ, because he checks his hole card (and takes your money) BEFORE he gives you the option of doubling....Once you get past the dealer not having BJ, 11vA is actually a winner! You do not double, because it is valuable to have the option of a fourth card if you get an A,2,3,4 or 5. If you double, you still have a winner, but it is a smaller winner because you may be stuck with a small card and a double bet. This difference is actually quite small, and once the true count gets to +2, the difference disappears and it is indeed better to double than hit....I don't understand your 8/13 question. I'll have to defer to someone more perceptive than me. (but please note that 8/13=62%, not 63%) |
2003-06-30 14:45:40 |
| Toughpreacher |
Yeah Chip, go and BEND yourself dude. I completely agree with Bughousemaster--What's wrong with having a long post anyways? |
2003-06-30 13:54:56 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Hey "Chip" who likes to smoke DIP, if you have nothing better to say, then BUTT OUT. Why are my posts to long to YOU only? Cuz you're too STUPID to comprehend all the statiscal analysis presented IN YOUR FACE? Alright then. So just shut your mouth, and MYOB if you have nothing better to say. Nothing was ever mentioned about BJ and obviously you have no concept about this game so again... BUTT OUT. |
2003-06-30 13:43:11 |
| Chip |
to bughouse. Hey butt head if the dealer has a BJ you have no chance to double. Your posts are too long, you just ramble on and on and on. |
2003-06-30 13:31:31 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Mr. Ed, thanks again. I did not say to double vs. Ace I said anything BUT against Ace :) Read it again.
Right, I see what you are saying about the % actually is going up (even as minute as it is, still .1% is .1% right?)
Why does Basic Strategy say not to double against Ace for multi-decks because there is fear of the dealer having BJ? Is that the only reason? Or having a 9 to make him have 20? What do you mean my 63% is "off"? And is having 63%, or 8/13 cards in YOUR FAVOR the most advantageous % that one will get in this game? Besides NOT hitting on hard 17 (~70% chance BUSTING) & higher can I only think of circumstances when the % is higher then 63%, or 8/13.... can anyone think of any other higher probability, advantageous to the players (i.e. doubling 11 vs. 6), etc.? |
2003-06-30 12:52:25 |
| Desert Dog |
Mr. Ed -- ... because the other cards are playing down faster than the tens, right? In your "heads up" example, even though the player keeps getting his ten value card when he doubles on eleven, the other cards he and the dealer get dealt mean that the remaining tens are a higher percentage of the rest of the shoe. Do I understand correctly? So simple, yet something I wouldn't have thought of myself until you explained it that way. Thanks. |
2003-06-30 12:19:50 |
| Mr. Ed |
Bughousemaster, First off, don't double 11vA. Double 11v2 thru 10, but not Ace. If you are counting, wait until the count hits +2 before you double vs an Ace. Second, the cards have no memory. Say you doulbed 11 and got a 10, five times in a row. If you get 11 again, the chances of drawing another 10 only depend on the remaining cards, and have nothing to do with the fact that you got five in a row. Say you're playing heads up with an 8 deck shoe. You get 6,5 vs dealer' 9. You double, get a 10. Dealer hits, gets another 9. You win. Same thing happens again: You get 6,5vs9. You double. Now, are you more or less likely to get ANOTHER 10? Take a guess. You are now actually MORE likely than you were the first time! You're chances go from 128/413=31.0% to 127/408=31.1%. The same thing happens again. Now your chances of drawing a 10 are 126/403=31.3% And so on!.........Question 1)Actually 63% IS a substantial winning advantage. If you had a 63% chance of winning and a 37% chance of losing, you would have substantial advantage. Your 63% is off: say double and draw a 6. You could still lose if the dealer draws to an 18. The real advantage is actually much smaller. You double because you win more by doubling than not doubling. For example, hit a $100 11v10 bet, your expected win is $12. Double and your expected win is $18. Hit 11v6, expected win is $34. Double and your expected win is $68.....I'm confused by your question 2). I'll try to answer it here, but if I miss the mark, please ask it in a different way: The value of doubling does not dwindle down very fast as you get the 10s you want. It depends what the other players get, too. In the example above, you're chances of getting ANOTHER 10 is actuall increasing with each hand. However, if you are playing single deck and there are 6 other players and they all get 20 (i.e. 10,10), just leave the table, and don't worry whether you should double anything. |
2003-06-30 11:55:55 |
| BuGhOu§eMASTER |
Mr. Ed: Thank you for the clarification!!
I'm going to the Casino tomorrow (multi-deck only) and although I always play Basic Strategy and dont ever make any stupid plays (splitting 10's etc.) I'm just wondering about this aspect of Basic Strategy. Lets say I have an 11, for Multi-decks they say to ALWAYS double on ANYTHING but against Ace. I agree with this. I also agree that 63% of the time I will be dealt a 6-10 (8 out of 13 cards)... but, can someone please tell me why this is ALWAYS the best thing to do, because surely that 63% of the time is 1) not a SUBSTANTIAL winning advantage in itself & 2) will dwindle down very fast after receiving the 10's that you want. So I'm wondering how is this % declination figured because, for instance, if I got an 11, doubled down and received a 10 five-hands straight, surely that 63% INITIAL ADVANTAGE is significantly lowered!! So why is it best to continue doubling since after even 5 hands the chances of being drawn a low-value card (A-5) are much greater then their initial probabilities, so therefore doubling down a 6th time is actually a DISADVANTAGE at this point. Eventhough I'm saying this, I always doubledown 11 because I know it is the BEST move, but I would appreciate it someone could clear this up the best they can (before tomorrow!!) Thanks a lot in advance. |
2003-06-30 09:11:11 |
| Mr. Ed |
There's been some confusion about what a "1-16 Spread" means, so I thought I'd help to clear it up. "1-16" is the ratio of your maximum bet to your minimum bet. If you bet 5,15,30,45,60,80 at true counts of 0,1,2,3,4,5, repsectively, you have a 1-16 spread. If you bet 10,30,60,90,120,160, you also have a 1-16 spread. |
2003-06-30 07:59:47 |
| Midnite |
McFlaherty - Hi Opt 1 counts the K-Q-J-10 as -1 and the 3-4-5-6 as +1. (all other cards = 0) High Low counts the A-K-Q-J-10 as -1 and the 2-3-4-5-6 as +1 (7-8-9 = 0) K. O. is an unbalanced count. It uses A-K-Q-J-10 as -1 and 2-3-4-5-6-7 as +1. (8-9 = 0) High Low is what many player perfer. Some also like K.O. Hi Opt 1 is the easiest and the weakest. There are several others, but these are the most common. Hpoe that answered your question. |
2003-06-30 03:09:01 |
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