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| steve |
Sage and Ron T: Another varible you have to factor into your comparisons of flat betting and progression betting is the importance of splits, double downs and blackjacks. This is why I asked on 5/26 what the %s of these hands are, I know blackjacks are about 1/20. These are hands you know you either have an advantage over the dealer with, or less commonly ones which will allow you to lose less in the long run(such as 8,8) At flat betting you will always have a base of one unit. In a progression you will have multiple units out for these hands in many cases. They make a huge difference whether your progression calls for the wins to be pressed or put into the chip pile as profits. These bets are vital for counters too. The flat better will never be able to take full advantage of them. I've never come off a table winners without a upper level progression DD, split or blackjack not having an important roll. It also makes it more exciting, try having a 16 chip progression in the betting circle when a A'A gets dealt to you, That will cause a pucker in your nether regions, if you win both hands a huge victory, lose and you may wipe out your whole buy in for that session, thats why they call it gambling. Even with the losses its much more exciting than being slowly ground down flat betting. |
2003-05-30 06:02:49 |
| Mike |
Blackjack is simple, you get an ace, the dealer gets a 5, you get a 4 the dealer buries one, you double down, aned get another ace the dealer turns over a six and draws a king. Thats all there is to it. |
2003-05-30 04:20:56 |
| ronman5000 |
I'm a novice....a roulette drop-out...but this game is very addictive. So, are you guys totally in line with the betting advice on this sites game or do you stray when it feels right? |
2003-05-29 21:26:51 |
| sld007 |
Progressive Betting does work. I've been playing over 20 years, tried counting, too much heat for too little reward. A modified Dahl (x,x,11/2x,11/2x, 2x, 2x, 3x, 3x and back to x with quit point at 4 losses or go to two hands) has allowed me to (i) walk with more $$ than I came in with about 2/3 of the time (ii) gets me great RFB comps, (iii) lets me play a long time with little chance at getting wiped out. True, no big paydays, BUT no big losses. Just grind baby! |
2003-05-29 21:13:31 |
| Ron T |
M-With regards to your 2 cents that progression is BS - You might be right, but I'm not there yet, so I'm going to pursue this progression thing. I enjoy this progression discussion with my peers and am doing research coupled with calculations and I can say my understanding of the mathematics of blackjack has improved because of it. I like some others here will probably take some number of hands such as 240 hands (4 hours @ 80 hands)and take the 43.2% win ratio of those 240 hands and disregard the pushes and calculate the win streaks available and then subtracting those streak wins from the total wins put in our progression bets figures and see if the flat bettor or the progression bettor did better. I'm going away this weekend so I putting this out now in case others want to do it or if others see flaws in my reasoning. M, if you've already done this, then thanks for your input but I have to do this myself BS or not. |
2003-05-29 18:28:00 |
| steve |
M, anybody with half a brain knows that the casinos wouldnt be there if they didn't have an innate advantage, even in the long run over counters if you look at counters as a group. We like the casino experiance, progressive betting makes you a strong player, it makes the experiance funner. I make 100k plus a year, why should I break my back and risk a huge bank roll to try to win 1/4 of that per year counting at blackjack, which is a pretty good payday for a counter, when I can make 4 times as much right in the comfort of my office. Winnings great, but I take pleasure in the experiance and challange, and if they get me that weekend, skrew the long run, I'll just go drink free beer and play the 25 cent crap table at Ballys(Tunica) and count the clevages. |
2003-05-29 14:52:21 |
| M |
sld- Beau Rivage is a nice lead -- looks like HA of .19%
Anyone have any other good leads for casinos (Indian?) in random places near accessible cities with a HA under .20?
My 2 cents on the progression discussion: progression betting is pure BS. You have 3 options in BJ: (1) Count cards, (2) expect to lose in the long run, (3) don't play. |
2003-05-29 14:34:28 |
| steve |
Sage, as per progression betting, in my opinion the primary requirement is consistancy. I have looked at multiple systems and they range from conservative, which I believe Thomason and Dahl are, to some I have customized for me when I find a table or shoe that seems to be player friendly. Two moderately aggressive ones are oriented to 3 streak and 4 streak runs, only if the table seems very player hot do I go to the four streak. At the end of a 3 streak win you would have 1 unit in play and 8 units profit. It goes X, 2X + X, 4X, then back to X after the third win. You are vulnerable after the first win because you have to add another unit, you reclaim it if you win twice in a row. In the 4 streak progression you follow the same pattern except after 4X you press and bet an 8X, if you win you are 16 units ahead with one unit in play. If you lose the second hand you are two units down, any other loss you are 1 unit down. Beware, a strong dealer shoe beats the crap out of this, use a 4 loss quit point and a strong stop loss. BJs DDS and split profits are not added to the progression. Sage what do you think? I bet the counters are laughing thier asses off as all of us run around like chickens with our heads cut off trying to find an easy way in a game that has been under a microscope for 20 years. Im still practicing my indices. |
2003-05-29 13:01:29 |
| Ron T |
Sage - I didn't put down the 1st step although I did use it in my calculations. I started out with a 43.2 win percentage and the 47.8 lose percentage and disregarded the 8.9 tie percentage. I added the 43.2 + 47.8 and got 91. I then divided the 43.2 by the 91 to give me the win ratio of 47.5. If I had added half of the tie (8.9%) or 4.45 % to the 43.2%, it would have given me 47.65%. Either way 47.5 or 47.65, I'm still in the ball park. I multiplied 47.5% chance of getting a winning by the next 47.5% chance of getting a winning hand and that gave me 22.54% which meant that I have a 22.54% chance of getting 2 winning hands in a row. Taking 100% and dividing by that 22.54% tells me I have 1 in 4.4 chance of getting 2 hands in a row. I continued multiplying the results by 47.5% to give me the percentages for another winning hand in a row.
It certainly doesn't make my progession system seem like the great cure all. I guess I've been lucky winning with it. |
2003-05-29 11:57:46 |
| Itonater |
Sage - thanks for the advice. I see your point about being behind flat betting in the earlier stages. Are there any types of progression betting systems you guys DO recommend? I see flat betters all the time and the one thing they all have in common is they look deathly depressed and don't say much of anything. I don't wanna become one of those guys. |
2003-05-29 11:32:57 |
| Sage |
Itonater Your progression is behind flatting betting at hand 2,3 & 4. (bet 1.5, 2, 3) You only catch up on hand 5 when you drop back to 1 unit after the 3 unit win. Thus how many times do you stop at hand 2, 3 or 4 and never get to hand 5? Is this progression really making money versus flat betting? In fact, does any progression every really make money versus the many accumulating small losses on the way to the big win? |
2003-05-29 09:47:26 |
| Sage |
Ron T. I recall reading somewhere that about 10% of the hands are a push. Thus the 47.5% of win/loss seems high. Taking that into account, the number drops to 42.75%. But I’m not sure how to go from there.
Also you can see where this is going. If you can get a fix on the probabilities of win/loss then you can calculate the results of the different progressions versus flat betting. Just using your numbers, you are behind flat betting at hand 3 & 4 and I’m not sure you ever catch up. You seem to lose more(number of times you are behind flat betting, on hand 3 or 4) versus the number of times you win big. But since these wins & losses are spread over many days, it may not seem obvious at the time
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2003-05-29 09:35:35 |
| sld007 |
M-Have you ever been to Beau Rivage? Vegas style with Southern charm. Lots of stuff for the little woman to do as well. Accesible and located in Biloxi, Miss. Check it out. Built by the former owners of the Mirage in Vegas. |
2003-05-29 09:25:42 |
| Itonater |
Betting progressions: I believe that a positive betting progression (bet more while winning, less while using) serves the main purpose of keeping you AWAKE during the session (that, and watching the moronic plays of the others at the table). Especially if you're at a very streaky table, a betting progression saves you a bunch of money. Personally, my progression goes like this: 1 unit, 1.5 units, 2 units, 3 units. If I lose anywhere during the progression, I drop back to 1 unit. Win or lose at 3 units, I go back to one unit. Does anybody else have a favourite betting progression? |
2003-05-29 07:57:55 |
| M |
I should clarify: pretty much willing to go anywhere in US but prefer (1) accessible by quasi-major airport and (2) other stuff to do for my lady-friend. |
2003-05-28 13:45:27 |
| M |
Best Game in USA?
Hi folks. I'm a very regular player/counter on a bit of a win streak. 7 wins/break evens in a row (average of about $2000) has me urging for a long weekend someplace with a good game. I was in Vegas recently playing 2 decks on the strip -- almost all of the single deck games there are now "BJ pays 6-5" which is a huge ripoff.
Anyway, I was thinking of doing a long intensive BJ weekend. Where's the best game? You know -- 1 or 2 decks, stand soft 17, surrender, double any 2 cards, double after split, etc. Willing to play $100 tables but $25 would be better. |
2003-05-28 13:44:26 |
| Ron T |
Sage/Grifter I did some figuring for the ratio of wins in a row starting from 1 going to 9 (assuming a 47.5 win %). Grifter if you see something wrong please let me know.
1 hand is 47.5% or once in every 2.1 hands; 2 hands is 22.54% or once in 4.4 hands; 3 hands is 10.70% or once every 9 hands; 4 hands is 5.10% or once every 20 hands; 5 hands is 2.41% or once every 41 hands; 6 hands is 1.14% or once every 88 hands; 7 hands is 0.54% or once every 185 hands; 8 hands is 0.26% or once every 385 hands; and 9 is 0.12% or once every 833 hands.
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2003-05-28 11:37:40 |
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