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| sld007 |
ps - as grifter (midnite?) pointed out some time ago, your sample of hands is far too miniscule to develop any long term conclusions; however, you could be out faster than 5-6 if you split or DD and I would like to see you chart the results like Dahl does (i.e. x,x,1.5x, 1.5x, or whatever your formula is, etc.) |
2003-05-28 10:26:22 |
| Grifter |
Sage – Your answers. Quick and dirty, and rounded up, but should give you what you want. One can NOT predict the occurrences of “streaks”, but here are the “probabilities” you asked for. (1) WWL, about once every 8 hands; (2) WWWL, about once every 15 hands; (3) Nine wins in a row, about once every 600-625 hands. |
2003-05-28 07:27:06 |
| ps |
OK you guys are most likely going to grill me on this, but I don't care...as sld007 said "whatever floats my boat" and I want to bounce it off of you guys anyway...I've always liked the fact that w/ a neg. prog. everytime u win you gain a unit, but it dosn't allow you to make gains on a winning streak and causes big loses on a losing streak. This is what i've come up with... after 2000 hands of home testing and up 8500... I start with a 100 hand, if i win i stay at 100. when i lose i go to a 25 bet with a neg prog until I make that 100 back and then start over, losing I take the NP to a 400 bet/lose (which could be 5 or 6 loses in a row depending on when they happen). I went live w/ this tonight and with strick BS left 600 up in one hour. My session BR is 1000. I know the down side 5-6 loses in a row & I'm out, but you math pro's do some work on this and let me know what you think....I would appreciate you guys really consider this before you respond....ps |
2003-05-27 22:30:33 |
| Sage |
Ron T. Thanks for the comments. I understand the progression is losing a little $ versus a flat bet in a short win run to get a lot more $ in the later stages of a long win run. It also seems that different progressions will falls behind the flat bet at different hands and at different rates. Are their any progressions that don’t fall behind the flat bets? With your progression, you are behind in two hands and it takes 8 hands to get a win of 11, and 9 hands to win 14 units. Can one predict the occurrences of wwl & wwwl versus a win streak of 9 hands?
Steve on 5/26 asked what are expected frequencies of the various winning streaks. He was right on. Grifter do you have some answers?
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2003-05-27 18:52:43 |
| Ron T. |
Grifter/Mike - I made a mistake on saying to stand with a 16 against a dealers 10 with our qualifying it as you did Grifter. Get the wet noddle out for 30 lashes. |
2003-05-27 13:31:24 |
| Ron T |
Sage - Your not missing anything. This progression is your not going to put more at risk than you previously won. If you wwl, your 1/2 unit ahead but you are 1/2 unit behind the flat bettor, if you wwwl, your 1.5 units ahead but also 1/2 unit behind the flat bettor. If you wwwwl your 3 units ahead and even with the flat bettor. However if you get to wwwwwl, your 5 units ahead and one unit ahead of the flat bettor. The next win gives you 8 unit win or 4 units more than the flat bettor. So with this progression (1)your never betting more than you won (2)you never lose more that 1/2 unit more than the flat bettor (3) you have the potential to more than double any flat bettors string of wins. |
2003-05-27 13:11:35 |
| Grifter |
Ron T./Mike – Ron, I agree with you on your post to Mike that splitting 4’s against dealer’s 6 is the right move (although very marginal and I usually don’t), but I have a little problem agreeing with the standing on 16 vs dealer 10…..unless the 16 is comprised of three or four low cards, including one five. Could you go a little further with your reasoning? Thanks……G. |
2003-05-27 12:36:33 |
| Sage |
Ron T. In looking at a progression, I compare it with flat betting.
I think it should not be worse than flat betting in the early stages, and should be much better than flat betting in the later stages. Also the series must include the last hand at a loss. Your 1, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3 etc is negative to flat betting if you lose hand 3 or 4 and positive 1 if you win hand 6, positive 3 at hand 7 etc. Since a loss at hand 3 or 4 is going to happen a lot more often that a getting to hand 6 or 7, I don’t see the advantage to the series. What am I missing? Thanks…
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2003-05-27 12:00:22 |
| sld007 |
sage - Here is how I have "modified" Dahl. No, I do not stay at 150 until I lose. I go back to 50. That way you have captured the funds without losing the last hand big. Also, I quit the shoe if I lose 4 hands uin a row...but sometimes I just play 2 hands...the difference can be startling sometimes. |
2003-05-27 09:39:17 |
| Ron T |
Mike - If you were playing in a multi-deck game (6 or 8 decks) and the game rules allowed you to double on any two cards, doubling allowed after splitting, dealer stands on soft 17, then he gave you the right information for a basic strategy player. |
2003-05-27 06:15:11 |
| Mike |
I had a dealer tell me to not hit 16 against his 10 and he also told me I should split 4's against his 6, This is a Korean dealer at an Indian casino....I just laughed it off and played my own game. |
2003-05-27 05:56:25 |
| ray ochoa |
thanks for the info, midnite, I prefer video poker but just recently got bit by the 21 bug. |
2003-05-27 01:19:08 |
| ray ochoa |
thanks for the info, midnite, I prefer video poker but just recently got bit by the 21 bug. |
2003-05-27 01:16:47 |
| Ron T |
Sage - 1,1,1.5,2,2.5,3,3,3 etc. until loss then 1,1 all over again. |
2003-05-26 18:41:52 |
| Midnite |
Ray Ochoa - In Laughlin you will find mostly six deck shoes and double deck games. Lots of $2 minimum games. Didn't find any place that allowed DAS (double after split). |
2003-05-26 18:05:21 |
| Midnite |
Sage - Where tables are limited, try this. After four losses in a row, just sit out the rest of the shoe (or deck)and start over, with the new shuffle. |
2003-05-26 17:46:34 |
| Sage |
Progression…What am I missing?
Used Dahl vs. a flat bet, both in 1 units
1, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, etc
After losing the indicated number hand the results are:
Dahl: 2nd = even, 3rd = .5, 4th = 2, 5th = 3, 6th = 5, etc
Flat: 2nd = even, 3rd = 1.0 (better result), 4th = 2, 5th = 3, 6th = 4,
It took 6 hands for Dahl to gain. (But series of loss at the 3rd hand and Dahl is behind flat betting) It takes about 9 hands to make Dahl work..
How many times do you get that big a winning streak?
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2003-05-26 17:33:53 |
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