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| sld007 |
Phil G. - Besides being called \"Wonging\" (named after Stanford Wong), it\'s also the primary reason the casinos have gone to no mid-shoe entry on the higher dollar tables. They SAY the reason why they did it was because most BJ players are superstitious and don\'t want other players jumping in and messin up their karma or whatever (which as midnite accurately stated a few posts ago is pure folly)but we know better. But then there is the problem with counting in today\'s environment. Even if the true count is VERY high, it is very dangerous to lay down a big bet after back counting. With 6Ds there are far too many combinations and permutations to give me any sense of comfort. I much prefer the slow and steady pace of a modified Dahl progression, where one can easily grind out victory after victory with little risk, excepting the every day risks of gambling as a whole. |
2003-05-23 13:13:21 |
| Pizzaman |
Just went to Vegas and saw that single deck pays 6:5 on blackjack. This obviously helps the house. My question to the mathematicians is: With that kind of payout, are the odds better on a single or dougle deck that pays 1.5:1? |
2003-05-23 12:30:41 |
| Grifter |
Phil G. – Yep, what you saw is called “Wonging” and it is a common way for counters to try and beat a shoe game. It is boring as hell. You simply backcount the shoe and wait until the TC gets to a very high number (that is the boring part) then throw down a $100 (or whatever) bet and hope the high count gives you a blackjack or a pat hand. Get it, take your winnings, and find another table. |
2003-05-23 10:56:47 |
| Phil G. |
Thanks to everyone for the info. Grifter - I usually play a 6 deck shoe, DAS and the dealer hits a soft 17. I have not played 1D or 2D tables yet. I have ordered 2 books from Amazon - KO Blackjack and Professional Blackjack. For now, I enjoy playing BJ, I do not do it for the money but my competitive nature would not allow me to play if I consistently lost. What got me curious is when I see a player stand behind me for a few hands and then start playing and in a few hands they walk away with more money than I ever have. I do not know but I am guessing that they are counting cards or looking for streaks. They seem to have a 6th Sense of when to be in the game. This seems to happen just about everytime I play. |
2003-05-23 10:50:22 |
| Grifter |
Continuation of Below - (2) If you plan on playing 2D and have a decent game available (EV of -0.35% or better) then I would suggest you go ahead and learn to count. Even if you never use it in real play, it is extremely valuable knowledge. It is just plain “hard work” at first, but it gets to be very easy with single or double deck games. And for you guys/gals that are playing positive progressions like Dahl or Walt’s it is so easy to combine them with a count as cover. (3) And finally, if you don’t pay any attention to anything I have said, please listen to this…….. If you learn to count, use it as a “weapon”, but continue to play for lower stakes and for FUN. Don’t make the same mistake I made for years and years and years and play it strictly to make money. Oh, I made plenty of money, but believe me it is WORK……there is no fun involved. And finally, the bankroll side for you to think about. Counting is an extremely volatile process. Just to play a $25 unit and a Level 1 count with a 1-4, you SHOULD have a bankroll of $20,000.00. You might get by with less, but I would never try it…………….Hopes this helps someone with their decision. |
2003-05-23 10:46:50 |
| Grifter |
To All, Especially Those Considering Learning to Count (like Doc’)……I apologize if this gets long, but it probably will……You probably won’t expect to hear this from me, but this is how I feel about counting with the present state of blackjack, and my suggestions to most of you…….(1) If you don’t know how to count and plan on continuing to play six deck, then do NOT bother to learn to count. It is not worth the effort now, and I think it will only get worse. As short a time frame as ten years ago, counting with a 6D shoe was very beatable in the better LV casinos, especially Steve Wynn’s stores. At TI for example, you had S17, DAS, LS, and 75-85 pen. Month after month BJF rated it as one of the best games in town and month after month I played that sucker. Sit down at a $10 table, blend in with the tourists, and use a $25 unit with a spread. Piece of cake. Those days are long gone as someone posted earlier. Look up TI’s rules today if you don’t believe me. Personally, I no longer play any 6D. |
2003-05-23 10:46:27 |
| Grifter |
SLD – Actually, I just re-read it yesterday because I knew most of you folks played Dahl or “Walt”. I don’t doubt Walt’s figures at all and we have discussed them (yes, I know him also. We used to be almost neighbors). I agree…..Walt does not “knock” counting at all. I know he believes it will change the EV to plus in long haul (in fact one of his tests shows that). I think what he is trying to give us is a method that will make us money without going through the hassle and risk of counting…….See my next two posts. I think you will be surprised at what I say about counting. |
2003-05-23 10:45:42 |
| sld007 |
coug fan and grifter - A good read which details the utter folly of counting in today\'s real world BJ environment can be found in Walter Thomason\'s book, 21st century BJ. He does an excellent mathematical analysis which details, over 5,000 or more hands, the results of flat betting vs. progressive betting vs. varying your bet based upon the true count. His results are quite impressive and further illustrate the real time advantage of progressive betting vs. counting. He does not say that all counting is bad; rather, that progressive betting will still get you where you wanna go--with no headaches and no heat from the pit. |
2003-05-23 10:06:50 |
| Grifter |
Phil G – You asked how much more winnings could you expect if you learned to count. Sorry, but there is no good “broadscope” answer to that and I think for me to try and give one would confuse the issue. It depends on three key criteria: (1) Number of Decks, (2) Rules; primarily DAS or not, and S17 or H17, (3) Penetration. If you want to post these three things for the game you typically play (or want to play), I would be glad to do the calculations and tell you what bet spread you would have to use to increase your EV to +0.5% and +1.0% using a Level 1 count. …..... GENERALLY speaking (so don’t anyone nitpick or hold me to this, I’m just trying to help) it is still relatively easy, at least in LV, to get a +1.0% edge or greater in 2D games. It is becoming increasing difficult in 6D games to even get a +0.5% edge……(Just saw Coug’s latest post. This kind of ties into that). |
2003-05-23 08:55:23 |
| sld007 |
Coug Fan - Thank you for your insightful post. |
2003-05-23 08:40:05 |
| Coug Fan |
SLD: You are right that the Expected Value of counting shoes is pretty low at low stakes. Even if you practice, get it down and make no mistakes (not easy, but certainly possible), your overall EV is maybe 0.5% - 1.0% of your action depending on game conditions. So at a $5 table, with a 1-20 spread play all and an average bet of maybe $30, you might expect to win $10-$20 an hour. This is why most small stakes counters stick to single and double deck games where you can get away with a relatively big spread at small stakes. Shoe games really only make sense for a card counter if he/she is well bankrolled.
Of course, if you are not counting, then it really doesn\'t make that much difference which game you play. The single and double deck games have a lower house edge but you get more hands per hour so your hourly loss will be pretty close regardless. |
2003-05-23 08:26:00 |
| I am smart |
I can count shoes, and tell the tells. |
2003-05-23 04:57:54 |
| how-d-you-all |
In Texas there\'s only stears and queers.Back when me and Ken or \"Kenny\" Uston were playing the Dunes, he was drinking and I was drinking and thinking, let\'s call it the \"SS\" count, I told him, short for, shit from shynola, boy those were the days my friend, for I thought they would never end, we hit and then we split, no wonging back then, make it a double (on the rocks that is), we hit\'em good for 50 grand that night, those were the days my friend, booze, babes, and cash,(few pills or two along the way), we thought they would never end, my friend, so to you all, it will never be the same, to much technology now, can play and have fun, and win few here and there, but you will never know what Kenny and I went through, we took them good, back in the day, those were the days my friend we thought they would never end, we would hit and split, they seen our backs walking out from the pit, I\'ll take a double (on the rocks that is), we were the game, it will never be the same, the house will get you, and take your last dollars, so keep counting them down you all, and keep hoping to see some light ahead, but we hit them good, back in \'77 Kenny and I hit and split and took 37k from the Frontier on a hot summer night, we were gamblers/hustlers/con men, we hit them good, booze, babes, and cash, we took them good, make it double (on the rocks that is), you can\'t beat them today boys, they will take your last dollar, back in \'76 Kenny and I took the Sands for 58k, we hit and then split, those were the days my friend, keep trying boys, and trying , and trying, and trying, but things will never be the same if you are looking to gamble at this game. LADY LUCK RULES, take it from me you fools. |
2003-05-22 22:48:31 |
| Midnite |
Phil G - There are no dumb questions, only people too dumb to ask a question. Coug Fan gave you the answers. If you know there are more big cards, you don\'t have to hit your bad hands, the dealer still has to his. If you don\'t know the answer, don\'t be afraid to ask a question. |
2003-05-22 21:09:47 |
| ps |
\"a good lesson for not playing BJ when you\'re tired\" In this game the HUMAN factor is very important: being tired, hungry, bored..nothing else to do. might as well keep playing, long ride home, and worse of all GREED. be happy with getting to your goal...the house counts on us being HUMAN |
2003-05-22 21:09:22 |
| Midnite |
Counting a six deck shoe is not hard,(even Midnite can do it) but then you have to divide the running count, into the number of decks left to be played, to get the true count. Ever since I got back from Laughlin they have been working on my street. I sleep days and haven\'t been able to, with jack hammers and ding-ding dump trucks. I have been going on three or four hours of sleep. No jack hammers today and I finely got some sleep. No excuse for my messed up post, but it didn\'t help. A good lesson for not playing BJ, when you are tired. |
2003-05-22 20:56:21 |
| sld007 |
Coug Fan and Grifter - \" It is rather easy, isn\\\'t it?\" I guess when you play at the $5 table the extra .5% advantage you get IF you are able to keep track of the running count MIGHT just pay for your electricity bill on your double wide grifter. LOL. You guys crack me up. |
2003-05-22 20:29:22 |
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